We are entering one of the biggest biosimilar waves in history, both in the United States and across emerging markets, with more than 200 billion dollars in biologic drugs expected to lose exclusivity over the next few years.
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Priority Healthcare Consulting
Market Access–Integrated Demand Forecasting
Our Services
We provide quantitative market research supported by internal experts who have spent their entire careers in pharmaceutical market research. We identify barriers, risks, and opportunities for your therapeutic product, predict market share using our proprietary forecasting methodology, and provide strategic direction to help maximize market share within your therapeutic market.

Market Access-Integrated Demand Forecasting

PHC AccessImpact™ Forecast
Traditional pharmaceutical demand forecasts measure physician treatment intent but often do not capture how prescribing behavior changes once payer restrictions are introduced. Prior authorization requirements, step edits, coverage criteria, and patient cost sharing can significantly influence real world prescribing patterns and market uptake.
When these dynamics are not incorporated into forecasts, companies can overestimate market share and launch demand. This can lead to overinvestment in manufacturing capacity, misallocation of commercial resources, unrealistic revenue expectations, and in some cases pressure on future R&D investment and future workforce restructuring.
Our PHC AccessImpact™ Forecast integrates market access dynamics directly into physician demand research. By measuring both physician intent and how prescribing behavior changes under different payer scenarios, we produce forecasts that better reflect real-world market share and launch risk.
PHC PatientSim™ Demand Model
Traditional pharmaceutical demand research often asks physicians to allocate market share across therapies. In practice, physicians do not think in terms of market share. They treat individual patients.
Our PHC PatientSim™ Demand Model addresses this limitation by presenting physicians with simulated patient profiles and asking how they would treat each patient in realistic clinical scenarios.
Patient Simulation Approach
Before the research begins, we define the key patient characteristics that influence treatment selection in the therapeutic area. Each characteristic contains multiple levels that reflect how frequently those patient types appear in the real world patient population.
During the study, physicians are presented with fully constructed patient profiles with one level selected from each characteristic to create realistic patient scenarios. Physicians then indicate how they would treat each patient, allowing us to observe how different clinical attributes influence prescribing behavior.
This proprietary methodology was developed over multiple generations of forecasting work by statisticians and methodologists originating from Roger Green’s RG+A consulting firm, where it was applied to numerous global HCP demand pharmaceutical launches. The approach has continued to evolve to better capture real world prescribing dynamics.
Integrating Market Access
Using the PHC AccessImpact™ Forecast, market access scenarios can be introduced after physicians select a treatment to observe how prescribing behavior changes when payer restrictions such as prior authorization, step edits, or coverage limitations are introduced. We are able to model up to 12 unique market access dynamics.
Outputs
The research produces two key outputs:
1. Physician demand based on clinical decision making
2. Market share estimates under up to 12 different market access scenarios
Together, these insights provide a more realistic view of product uptake and launch risk.
Market Access Payer Messaging Strategy

Conducting custom market research with payers presents unique challenges, as payer objectives often diverge significantly from those of manufacturers. Our approach centers on analyzing real-world examples and analogs in payer messaging. By examining payer priorities we align our research to reveal actionable insights that meet their needs. We highlight missteps from other manufacturers, using them as learning points, and emphasize strategies that have proven successful. This allows us to navigate payer landscapes more effectively, building strategies that resonate with their goals and strengthen your market access.
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